S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller also shows top three metros with the highest price gains.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller latest index found that home prices across the US climbed at a 19.8% annual rate in August – the same as the month before.

“While demand remains strong and buyers are still generally paying more for homes than the asking price, the slowing acceleration in home prices suggests that buyer fatigue is setting in, particularly among higher-priced homes where the acceleration in price growth from the previous month has been larger compared to low tier homes,” said CoreLogic deputy chief economist Selma Hepp.

The 10-City Composite annual gain fell from 19.2% in July to 18.6% in August. The 20-City Composite year-over-year gain dropped from 20% to 19.7%.

Hepp said that a surge in investor demand this summer had amplified the strong demand among traditional homebuyers.

“Together, demand pressures continue to drive home price growth higher despite some early signs of buyer fatigue and slight improvements in the availability of for-sale homes,” she said. “And while strong home price appreciation rates are narrowing the pool of buyers, particularly first-time buyers, the depth of the supply and demand imbalance and robust demand among higher-income earners will continue to push prices higher.”
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Phoenix, San Diego, and Tampa posted the highest annual increases among the 20 cities in August. Phoenix was at the top with a 33.3% price gain, San Diego followed at 26.2%, and Tampa reported a 25.9% increase. Eight of the 20 cities experienced higher price increases in August than in July.



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New data reveals rate hits nine-month low.

The number of bidding wars across the US has dropped to a nine-month low, according to real estate firm Redfin.
Figures from Redfin revealed that 58.9% of home offers written by the firm’s agents in September 2021 faced competition – down from a revised rate of 60.8% in August and a peak of 74.3% in April.

The data indicates that, while competition has been easing due to the housing market cooling from the typical seasonal slowdown, homes are still selling faster than usual for this time of year. Redfin pointed to the ongoing shortage of homes for sale as fueling the demand, with new listings falling 9% year-over-year in September.

“It’s typical to see a decline in competition as families head back to school and the weather cools down,” said Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr. “Buyers also aren’t having to offer as much above the asking price as they were in the spring, when competition in the housing market was peaking. As mortgage rates continue to rise, we can expect bidding wars to keep slowing.”
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The real estate firm also revealed that Raleigh in North Carolina was the housing market with the highest bidding-war rate of the 45 US metropolitan areas it analyzed, with 73.9% of offers written by Redfin agents facing competition in September. This was followed by Boston, Mass. at 71.7% and Indianapolis, Ind. at 71.4%. Sacramento, Calif., and San Diego, Calif. rounded out the top five, with bidding-war rates of 70.5% and 70.3%, respectively.

Freddie Mac releases latest statement

Mortgage rates in the US continued to climb. 

The average for a 30-year loan was 3.09%, up from 3.05% last week and the highest since April 8, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday.

While still historically low, mortgage rates have crept up in recent weeks. Higher borrowing costs could cut into purchasing power for potential homebuyers scouring a real estate market that has run hot for more than a year. 

A shortage of listings has fueled bidding wars and driven up prices during the pandemic. While more homeowners have decided to put their properties on the market, shortages of materials and labor have held back new construction.

​“Even as the availability of existing homes is improving, prices remain high due to homebuyer demand and limitations on housing starts,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Despite these countervailing forces, we expect the housing market to remain strong as we head into the end of the year.”

Latest survey reveals fourth consecutive week of decline

Total mortgage applications slumped 6.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey for the week ending October 15. On an unadjusted basis, it went down by 6% on the Market Composite Index.

Similarly, MBA’s Refinance Index saw a 7% decrease from the previous week – 22% lower than it was the same week a year ago. This marks the fourth consecutive week of its decline as rates have increased, bringing it to the lowest recorded level since July.

“The 30-year fixed rate has increased 20 basis points over the past month and reached 3.23% last week – the highest since April 2021. The 15-year fixed rate increased to 2.54%, which is the highest since July,” said Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting at the MBA.

The refinance shares of mortgage activity went down from 63.9% to 63.3% this week, while the adjustable-rate mortgage share decreased to 3.3% of total applications.

Both the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted Purchase Index also declined 5% from the previous week.

“Purchase activity was 12% lower than a year ago, within the annual comparison range that it has been over the past six weeks,” Kan said. “Insufficient housing supply and elevated home-price growth continue to limit options for would-be buyers.”
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Meanwhile, the FHA share of total applications remained unchanged from 10.2% the week prior.
On the other hand, the VA share of total applications went up from 10.2% to 10.4% while the USDA share of total applications from 0.4% to 0.5%.

New home sales activity slowed during the month

Mortgage applications for new home purchases fell 16.2% year over year in September, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Builder Application Survey. Month over month, applications dropped by 4% on an unadjusted basis.

MBA’s estimates show that new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 843,000 units in September. That is 3.5% below the August pace of 874,000 units. Unadjusted, new home sales decreased from 71,000 to 66,000 month over month.
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“New home sales purchase activity was weaker in September, and the average loan size rose to another record high, as homebuilders continue to grapple with rising building materials costs and labor shortages. The survey-high average loan size of $408,522 is evidence of higher sales prices from these higher costs, as well as the shift in new construction to larger, more expensive homes,” said Joel Kan, AVP of economic and industry forecasting at MBA. “The estimated pace of new home sales decreased 3.5% last month after a strong August reading, but the two-month sales pace is at its strongest since January 2021.”

By product type, conventional loans comprised 75.1% of loan applications, FHA loans 13.9%, RHS/USDA loans 0.5%, and VA loans 10.5%. The average loan size of new homes rose from $406,922 in August to $408,522 in September.

Freddie Mac releases results of its weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to its highest point since April, Freddie Mac reported Thursday.

Freddie’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the 30-year fixed-rate home loan averaged 3.05% for the week ending October 14, up from 2.99% last week. It was 2.81% a year ago.

Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said that the modest upswing was not a surprise as inflationary pressure continues to build up due to the ongoing pandemic and tightening monetary policy.

“Historically speaking, rates are still low, but many potential homebuyers are staying on the sidelines due to high home price growth,” Khater said. “Rising mortgage rates combined with growing home prices make affordability more challenging for potential homebuyers.”

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also increased this week, up by seven basis points to 2.30%. Last year, the 15-year mortgage rate was 2.35%.
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The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) posted a three-basis-point increase to 2.55%. A year ago at this time, it averaged 2.90%.

New polling from Fannie Mae shows consumers increasingly gloomy over housing future

An increasing number of consumers believe it’s a bad time to buy a property, with less than a third stating that market conditions are favorable for buying a home, according to Fannie Mae’s latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI).

The survey, taken from a poll of 1,000 respondents between September 1 and September 26, shows that only 28% of consumers believe it’s a good time to buy.

By contrast, a growing share of consumers (66%) report that it is a bad time to buy a home, reflecting a three percent increase compared to the previous month.

The survey highlights the wide disparity between home buying and home-selling conditions, the latter remaining mostly flat, with a strong majority of consumers (74%) maintaining that it is a good time to sell.

However, the most notable aspect is the percentage drop of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home, falling from 32% in August to 28% last month - the lowest level since Fannie Mae began the monthly survey in June 2010.

Fannie Mae’s deputy chief economist Mark Palim said the drop to 28% was “the worst it's ever been”, adding that it reflected concerns about high property prices, which have shot up to an all-time high of 20% year over year.

Speaking to MPA, he said: “[The 28%] is the lowest it’s ever been. A year ago, in September 2020, it was at 54%, so it’s at an all-time [low], going back to when we started the survey.

“Home price is a major driver of that sentiment. During that time, if we think over the summer, we've had releases of different home price indices that have had around 19% year over year changes. That's pretty remarkable.”

Homeowners and renters were asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts, six of which were compiled for the HPSI survey. Year over year, the full index is down 6.5 points, while the net share of those who said it is a good time to buy also decreased seven percentage points, month over month.

Palim said the slump in home building caused by a mixture of high construction costs, supply and labor shortages as well as zoning restrictions were affecting one specific sector.

He said: “When the supply becomes constricted, it’s the more moderately priced homes that are affected by price appreciation because that's where the supply’s the tightest.”

House price increases have a knock-on effect on people with lower incomes, as they are being edged out of the market due to the severe lack of affordable homes on the market, he explained.

“People move down, as they no longer can afford a certain neighborhood they were targeting. They go to a more modest neighborhood, but (that means) the people who would naturally be starting out in that most modest neighborhood have been pushed out,” he added.

Among the survey’s other takeaways is a suggestion that respondents were caught unawares when rates shot up nine points the week commencing September 20.

The data shows there was an increase in the share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the coming year, increasing from six to eight percent, while there was a slight two percent drop in the percentage of people who expect rates to rise.   

“They didn't see the rate increase coming, but neither did the bond market,” Palim remarked.

Respondents are however more optimistic about their job prospects, with 81% of those polled saying they are not concerned about losing their job, representing a small one percent drop from the previous month and reflecting a positive mood overall about the shape of the economy, he said.

Palim’s colleague Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, had earlier said the data could be a reflection of respondents’ “generally lower incomes and their observation that the availability of affordable homes is lacking”.
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He pointed out that although there was “a softening in consumers’ expectations that home prices will continue to increase”, in his view further home price appreciation – including low levels of inventory and low interest rates – will continue.

Economist says supply shortages continue to be a problem

US house prices climbed 1.4% month over month and spiked 19.2% year over year in July, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index.

The index showed that home price growth increased from the revised upward appreciation of 1.7% in June. Monthly house price changes in the nine census division ranged from +0.8% in the West North Central division to +1.9% in the South Atlantic division. The annual changes varied from +15.6% in the West North Central division to +25.6% in the Mountain division.

“Record appreciation rates for the US continued in July,” said Lynn Fisher, FHFA deputy director of the division of research and statistics. “Although the monthly pace of increase slowed in most census divisions in July, four areas experienced year over year growth rates in excess of 20%, and all saw annual gains in excess of 15%.”
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CoreLogic deputy chief economist Selma Hepp noted several factors that have created a double whammy for home price growth.

“There’s a surge of millennials approaching the prime home-buying age and are experiencing more flexibility to expand their search locations,” she said. “Additionally, there are move-up buyers with larger budgets who are relocating to more affordable areas where they’re financially able to outbid local residents.”

Hepp added that homebuyers across all ages continue to enjoy historically low mortgage rates but have now also been joined by an influx of investor buyers over the summer. This continued high buyer demand, she said, has offset the improvements in the supply of for-sale homes.